The Great Summer VC Myth: What 42,000+ Funding Rounds Tell Us About Raising Capital in July
“VCs are all on vacation in the Hamptons during summer” – Every founder who’s ever tried to raise in July
We’ve all heard it. The startup fundraising gospel according to Sand Hill Road: Don’t even think about raising venture capital between Memorial Day and Labor Day. VCs are supposedly sipping rosé on Nantucket, their portfolios gathering dust while they perfect their tennis serves.
But what if this conventional wisdom is just that – conventional, but not actually wise?
We dove into Carta’s dataset of 42,000+ primary funding rounds from US startups between 2018-2024 to settle this debate once and for all. What we found will surprise you (and maybe change your fundraising timeline).
The Numbers Don’t Lie: Summer Isn’t the Fundraising Dead Zone
Let’s start with July – the supposed graveyard of startup dreams. According to the data, July accounts for an average of 8.4% of all deals across the seven-year period.
Put that in context: if deals were distributed perfectly evenly across 12 months, each month would represent 8.33% of annual volume. July is literally above average.
But here’s where it gets interesting. The month that consistently shows the highest deal volume? December, averaging 10.8% of deals. Yes, December – when everyone is supposedly checked out for the holidays.
Meanwhile, the actual slowest months? January and February, averaging just 6.8% and 6.9% respectively. The very months when everyone returns from vacation “ready to do deals.”
The Summer Surge: May Through August Tell a Different Story
When you look at the broader summer period (May through August), the picture becomes even clearer:
- May: 9.0% of deals (consistently above average)
- June: 9.0% of deals (tied for third-highest monthly average)
- July: 8.4% of deals (above the 8.33% baseline)
- August: 8.2% of deals (essentially average)
Combined, these four months represent 34.6% of all deals – more than one-third of annual volume happening during the supposed “dead zone.”
Year-by-Year: The Trend Is Your Friend
The data reveals some fascinating year-over-year patterns:
2020-2021 (The ZIRP Years): Summer months actually outperformed during the zero-interest-rate frenzy. July 2021 hit 9.0% of deals, while December 2020 peaked at an astronomical 13.5%.
2022-2024 (The Reality Check): Even as overall funding contracted, summer months maintained their relative strength. July 2024 captured 9.4% of deals – the highest July percentage in the dataset.
The COVID Effect: 2020 shows the most dramatic seasonal variation, likely due to the initial market freeze followed by the digital acceleration boom. But even then, summer months recovered quickly.
Why the Conventional Wisdom Is Wrong
So why does this myth persist? A few theories:
1. Confirmation Bias: Founders who struggle to raise in summer blame the season, not their pitch, timing, or market conditions.
2. East Coast VC Lens: The Hamptons effect is real for a subset of VCs, but Silicon Valley, Austin, and other ecosystems don’t follow East Coast vacation schedules.
3. LP Meeting Confusion: Many VCs have LP meetings in summer, but that doesn’t stop deal flow – it often accelerates it as they need pipeline to discuss.
4. Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: When founders avoid summer fundraising, they miss opportunities that competitors capitalize on.
The December Anomaly: Holiday Hustle or Year-End Push?
December’s consistent strength (averaging 10.8% of deals) deserves special attention. This likely reflects:
- Year-end budget deployment pressure
- Tax considerations for both investors and founders
- “Getting deals done before the holidays” mentality
- Less competition from other fundraising companies
What This Means for Your Fundraising Strategy
The data suggests a complete rethink of fundraising timing:
Summer Decision-Making Is Real: VCs are clearly making investment decisions and signing deals throughout summer months. The idea that partners are mentally checked out is simply not reflected in the data.
July/August Aren’t Dead Zones: These months consistently show average or above-average deal signing activity, suggesting VCs are actively evaluating and closing investments.
January/February Are the Real Slow Months: The data shows these months consistently underperform, likely due to post-holiday strategic planning and budget-setting cycles.
December Urgency Is Real: The consistently strong December performance suggests year-end decision-making pressure creates genuine opportunity for deals to get signed.
The Key Insight: When Deals Actually Get Signed
This data shows when deals are actually signed – meaning these are the months when VCs are making final investment decisions, cutting checks, and closing rounds. This directly contradicts the narrative that VCs are mentally unavailable during summer months.
Top 5 Takeaways
1. Summer Isn’t Dead – It’s Above Average July averages 8.4% of deals annually, higher than the 8.33% baseline. The “summer slowdown” is a myth not supported by actual deal data.
2. December Is the Real Winner
At 10.8% of deals, December consistently outperforms every other month. Year-end budget pressure and urgency create significant opportunity.
3. Avoid January/February, Not July/August The actual slowest months are January (6.8%) and February (6.9%). Post-holiday strategic planning cycles, not summer vacations, create the real fundraising dead zone.
4. Competition May Be Lower in “Off-Season” Months If fewer founders are fundraising in summer due to conventional wisdom, those who do may face less competition for VC attention and dollars.
5. Market Conditions Matter More Than Seasons The 2020-2021 data shows that when capital is abundant, every month performs well. When it’s scarce (2022-2024), seasonal patterns matter less than having a compelling business and tight execution.
The bottom line? Stop letting outdated conventional wisdom dictate your fundraising calendar. The data is clear: great companies can raise capital any month of the year – including July.
