Most $1B+ Exits Aren’t IPOs Anymore. In fact, only 11% are.
New research from Professor Ilya Strebulaev at Stanford University Graduate School of Business reveals a dramatic shift in how unicorns exit. The data, compiled by Stanford’s Venture Capital Initiative, shows IPO share of unicorn exits dropped from 83% in 2010 to just 11% in 2024—a fundamental restructuring of the exit landscape that has permanent implications for SaaS founders.
The Great Exit Reality Check
Most $1B+ Exits Aren’t IPOs Anymore. Here’s What That Means for B2B Founders.
The data is stark: IPO share of unicorn exits dropped from 83% to 11% between 2010 and 2024.
Even at the 2021 peak (85 total unicorn exits), IPOs were only 39% of exits. By 2022? Just 8%. A brief recovery to 24% in 2023, then back down to 11% in 2024.
What changed? Four key shifts:
→ Private funding became abundant. No more “IPO for growth capital” pressure → Public markets got expensive. Compliance costs + reporting requirements → Secondary markets emerged. Employee/early investor liquidity without going public → Strategic acquirers stepped up. Large players buying more unicorns
For B2B founders: The IPO is no longer the automatic preferred choice. You now have more alternatives—and more constraints.
The Compliance Reality
Why Going Public Became Less Attractive (And What SaaS Founders Should Know)
IPO share of unicorn exits: 83% → 11% from 2010 to 2024.
The hidden story? Going public became more expensive and complicated.
The new IPO reality:
- Compliance costs skyrocketed
- Reporting requirements intensified
- Contractual clauses in VC agreements can prevent IPOs when valuations decline
- Secondary markets now offer liquidity without public market exposure
Meanwhile, private stayed attractive:
- Abundant late-stage funding removed “IPO for growth capital” pressure
- Large players buying more unicorns as main exit route
- Patient late-stage investors willing to wait longer
Bottom line: The IPO market has been slow overall in recent years, but the structural changes run deeper. Private alternatives simply became better.
Source: Stanford GSB Venture Capital Initiative
The 2021-2024 Volatility Story
The IPO Rollercoaster: From 8% to 24% to 11% in 3 Years
Here’s the wild ride of unicorn IPO exits:
- 2021: 39% (85 total exits – the peak year)
- 2022: 8% (IPO market crashed)
- 2023: 24% (brief recovery)
- 2024: 11% (back to new normal)
What the volatility tells us:
The 2023 “recovery” was likely pent-up demand from 2022’s frozen IPO market. But 2024’s return to 11% suggests the structural shift is real.
Key insight: Even in 2021’s peak year with 85 unicorn exits, IPOs were still minority (39%). The “IPO as default exit” era ended before the market crash.
For founders: Don’t time your exit strategy around IPO market cycles. Build optionality for the 89% scenario (M&A/other) that’s becoming the norm.
The data suggests this isn’t temporary—it’s the new baseline.
The Secondary Market Revolution
One Hidden Reason IPOs Dropped 72 Percentage Points: Secondary Markets
IPO share fell from 83% to 11% between 2010-2024. But here’s what most miss: Secondary markets changed everything.
Before: IPO was the only path to employee/early investor liquidity Now: Secondary markets let people sell shares without the company going public
The ripple effects:
- Employees get liquidity earlier in company lifecycle
- Early investors can realize returns without IPO pressure
- Late-stage investors can be more patient
- Companies stay private longer without stakeholder pressure
For B2B founders: Your equity compensation strategy needs updating. Secondary markets mean top talent won’t demand IPO timelines for liquidity anymore.
This isn’t just about exit strategy—it’s about how you recruit, retain, and manage stakeholder expectations throughout your journey.
The VC Agreement Trap
Hidden IPO Killer: Contractual Clauses in VC Agreements
IPO exits dropped from 83% to 11% over 14 years. One underrated factor? The fine print in your funding docs.
The problem: Contractual clauses in investor agreements may prevent VC-backed companies from going public when valuations decline. There are often ways around it (e.g., Hinge Health IPO). But it can still be a challenge.
How it works:
- Down-round IPO protection clauses
- Liquidation preferences that make IPOs unattractive
- Board consent requirements for public offerings
- Anti-dilution provisions that trigger in declining markets
Real impact: When public market valuations dip below your last private round, these clauses can make IPOs economically impossible—even if you meet all other criteria.
For founders: Read your docs. Understand what happens to IPO optionality as you raise later rounds. Sometimes the capital comes with invisible exit constraints.
The 11% IPO rate isn’t just market forces—it’s also contract design.
The Structural Shift Reality
This Isn’t Temporary: Why IPO Share Won’t Return to 83%
Stanford research shows unicorn IPO share dropped from 83% to 11% between 2010-2024.
The key insight from Professor Ilya Strebulaev: “This likely isn’t a temporary change. The IPO is no longer the automatic preferred choice for unicorn exits.”
Why it’s permanent:
✅ Private funding abundance removed “IPO for growth capital” pressure
✅ Secondary markets provide liquidity without going public
✅ Strategic buyers increasingly dominate large acquisitions
✅ Compliance costs made public markets less attractive
The new reality: Companies now have more alternatives—and more constraints.
For SaaS founders: Stop planning for the 83% world. Build for the 11% world where IPO is one option among many, not the default destination.
The Stanford data doesn’t show a cycle. It shows evolution.
Recent $1B+ Private B2B/SaaS Exits: The Data in Action
The Stanford data reflects real exits happening right now. Here are notable $1B+ private B2B and SaaS acquisitions from 2024-2025, demonstrating how M&A dominates over IPOs:
Major Private Company M&A Exits:
- Wiz → Google (2025): $32B
- Melio → Xero (2025): $2.5B
- Moveworks → ServiceNow (2025): $2.85B
- Weights & Biases → CoreWeave (2025): $1.7B
- vLex → Clio (2025): $1B
- Data.World → ServiceNow (2025): ~$350M
The Exception: Blocked Deal
- Figma ❌ Adobe (regulatory block): $20B (Figma received $1B breakup fee and remained independent)
Even Wiz, which walked away from Google’s initial $23B offer to pursue an IPO, ultimately chose strategic acquisition at $32B. This perfectly illustrates Professor Strebulaev’s insight that “the IPO is no longer the automatic preferred choice for unicorn exits.”
