What the revenue trajectories of Snowflake, Shopify, Okta, and Twilio tell us about the new normal in B2B and SaaS.
Remember when 100%+ growth was table stakes for SaaS startups? When VCs would literally walk away from any SaaS company not doubling revenue year-over-year? That’s still there in the top AI start-ups. But outside of Palantir, not in any of the classic public SaaS companies.
Buckle up. Because the data from four of our biggest B2B winners tells a very different story about what “good growth” looks like in 2025.
The Numbers Don’t Lie (But They Sure Have Changed)
I pulled the revenue growth rates for four companies that defined the last SaaS boom: Snowflake, Shopify, Okta, and Twilio. What I found was equal parts sobering and enlightening.
The Peak Era (2020-2021):
- Snowflake: 124% → 106%
- Shopify: 86% → 57%
- Twilio: 55% → 61%
- Okta: 43% → 56%
The Reality Check (2025 Q1):
- Shopify: 27% (still crushing it)
- Snowflake: 26% (remarkably consistent)
- Twilio: 12% (the comeback kid)
- Okta: 12% (steady profitability focus)
What “The Great Flattening” Actually Means
1. Scale Kills Velocity
When Snowflake was doing 124% growth, they had $265M in revenue. Now at 26% growth, they’re at $3.6B+.
Math check: 26% of $3.6B = $936M in new revenue. That’s more net new ARR than most unicorns will ever see total.
The lesson? Absolute dollar growth > percentage growth once you hit scale. A “boring” 25% on a $3B base is a hell of a lot more impressive than 200% on $50M.
2. The Market Maturation Curve Is Real
Every category goes through this:
- Land Grab Phase (2018-2021): Winner-take-most dynamics, explosive growth
- Penetration Phase (2022-2024): Market saturation begins, competition intensifies
- Optimization Phase (2025+): Efficiency over growth, profitability matters
We’re now firmly in Phase 3. The companies that figured out unit economics and operational leverage early (hello, Shopify) are winning. Those that didn’t… well, just look at Twilio’s journey from 61% to 7% and back to 12%.
3. AI Is the New Growth Engine (For Some)
Notice how Snowflake has stabilized around 26-30%? That’s not an accident. Every enterprise AI initiative runs on data infrastructure. Every ChatGPT competitor needs compute and storage. Snowflake is literally selling the picks and shovels for the AI gold rush.
Pro tip: If your SaaS company can credibly position itself as “AI infrastructure,” your growth multiple just went up 2-3x in the current market.
The Shopify Exception (And Why It Matters)
While everyone else was flatlining, Shopify pulled off something remarkable: eight consecutive quarters of 25%+ growth on a $9B+ revenue base.
How? Three things:
- Total Addressable Market expansion – They didn’t just ride e-commerce growth; they defined it
- Platform network effects – More merchants = better for buyers = better for merchants
- International execution – 31% GMV growth internationally while the US market matured
Takeaway: The best B2B companies don’t accept market maturity. They create new markets.
The Twilio Turnaround Story
From 61% growth to 7% and back to 12% – Twilio’s rollercoaster is the perfect case study in what happens when you lose focus, then find it again.
The decline (2021-2023): Segment acquisition integration, macro headwinds, customer churn
The recovery (2024-2025): Disciplined execution, AI product innovation, cost optimization
Key insight: In mature SaaS markets, execution discipline beats feature velocity every single time.
The Okta Maturity Story
While everyone focuses on Shopify’s consistency and Twilio’s recovery, Okta tells the most important story for many B2B leaders: how to win by choosing profitability over growth rate.
The numbers: 56% → 43% → 22% → 15% → 12% growth The transformation: From growth-at-all-costs to 25% operating margins
Here’s why this matters more than you think:
The New SaaS Math That Actually Works
Old thinking: 50% growth with -20% margins = venture fundable
New reality: 15% growth with +25% margins = public market winner
Okta’s Q1 2025 results prove this. While analysts obsess over their “declining” 12% growth, they’re ignoring the $320M+ in quarterly operating cash flow and 25% operating margins at $2.7B revenue scale.
Translation: Okta generated more profit this quarter than most SaaS companies generate in revenue.
Vertical SaaS and SaaS Selling Outside of Tech Remains The Big Exception
Vertical SaaS, and SaaS selling outside of tech have seen consistent, top decile growth the past 24 months. Not 2020-2021 growth, but top decile growth:
What This Means for B2B Leaders Today
If You’re Pre-$100M ARR:
- Don’t panic about “only” 40-60% growth – that’s the new exceptional
- Focus obsessively on unit economics – capital efficiency is the new growth at all costs
- Pick a lane and dominate – the days of “platform plays” are mostly over
If You’re $100M-$1B ARR:
- 25-40% growth is your new target – anything above that and you’re probably underpricing
- Invest heavily in customer success – net revenue retention is now your most important metric
- International expansion is no longer optional – domestic markets are saturated
If You’re $1B+ ARR:
- 15-30% growth with improving margins wins – profitability is your growth multiplier
- Platform and ecosystem plays become viable again – you have the scale to make them work
- M&A becomes a growth accelerator – buy your way into adjacencies
The Bottom Line
The Great Flattening isn’t a bug – it’s a feature of a maturing industry. The companies that adapt their growth strategies to this new reality will build sustainable, profitable empires. Those that keep chasing 2020-era growth rates will burn out.
The new SaaS math is simple:
- Growth rate × Revenue scale × Profit margin = Company value
- All three variables matter now, not just the first one
The data from these four B2B giants proves it.
