The IPO window isn’t just cracked open—it’s wide open. After years of drought, 2025 has delivered a scorching hot public market for tech companies so far, with some eye-popping returns that should have every SaaS founder and investor paying attention.
The Numbers Don’t Lie: We’re in a Different Market
Let’s start with the headline grabber: Circle’s 250%+ gain from IPO price to current trading levels. That’s not a typo. The company that filed at $24-26 per share and priced at $31 is now trading at levels that would make even the most seasoned growth investor do a double-take.
But Circle isn’t alone. Looking at the last 20 tech IPOs, we’re seeing an average first-day pop of 31% and current returns averaging 76.8% above IPO price. Even more telling? The most recent five IPOs are averaging 121.5% returns from their initial pricing.
What’s Driving This IPO Renaissance?
Market Timing Is Everything
The Morgan Stanley data reveals something fascinating: 10 of the last 20 tech IPOs happened in 2025, with the majority clustered in the past few months. This isn’t coincidence—it’s companies and bankers recognizing a fundamental shift in market appetite:
IPO Size Matters, But Not How You Think
The average IPO size has been $887M, but here’s the kicker: some of the best performers are actually smaller deals. Reddit ($860M) delivered 256% returns, while Arm’s massive $5.2B deal “only” returned 161%. The lesson? You don’t need to be a mega-round to capture mega-returns.
The B2B/SaaS Opportunity Hidden in Plain Sight
While not every company in this dataset is B2B or pure SaaS, the implications for software companies are massive:
Revenue Multiples Are Back
With companies like ServiceTitan (filed at 52-57x revenue based on typical SaaS metrics) and others commanding premium valuations, we’re seeing a return to growth-focused pricing. The market is once again rewarding recurring revenue models and predictable growth patterns.
The File-to-Price Premium
Here’s a nugget most people miss: companies are consistently pricing above their initial filing ranges. SailPoint filed at $19-21 but priced at $23. This “pricing power” indicates genuine demand, not just investment bank optimism.
What This Means for Your SaaS Company
If You’re Series C+ and Growing Fast
The window is open, but it won’t stay open forever. Market conditions this favorable historically last 12-18 months before either cooling off or becoming overheated. Companies with $100M+ ARR and 30%+ growth should seriously evaluate their IPO readiness.
If You’re Earlier Stage
Use this data to set expectations with investors. The public market appetite for tech validates higher private valuations, but don’t get caught up in the hype. Focus on the fundamentals that make companies IPO-ready: predictable revenue growth, expanding margins, and clear path to profitability.
The Red Flags to Watch
Not everything is roses. CoreWeave’s -21.6% file-to-offer performance and SailPoint’s negative current returns remind us that execution still matters. Even in hot markets, companies with weaker fundamentals or just poorer timing get punished.
The “Average” Story
Strip away the outliers, and the average first-day pop is 10.3%—healthy but not euphoric. This suggests the market is pricing most deals fairly, with exceptional companies (like Circle) earning exceptional returns.
The Strategic Implications
For Private Companies
- Accelerate IPO timelines if you’re in the consideration phase
- Optimize for the metrics that matter: recurring revenue, net retention, and path to profitability
- Consider direct listings if you don’t need to raise capital—the market appetite is there
For Investors
- Public market validation is driving private market premiums
- Late-stage rounds are likely to be more expensive as IPO prospects improve
- Secondary opportunities may emerge as employees and early investors seek liquidity
The Bottom Line
We’re witnessing a fundamental reset in how the public markets value technology companies. The combination of AI excitement, economic stability, and pent-up demand from years of IPO drought has created conditions we haven’t seen since 2021.
But here’s the thing: unlike 2021’s “everything rally,” this market appears more discerning. Companies with real revenue, real growth, and real paths to profitability are getting rewarded. Those without are getting left behind.
For B2B companies, the message is clear: if you’ve been building a real business with strong unit economics and predictable growth, the public markets are ready to reward you. The question isn’t whether you should consider going public—it’s whether you can afford not to.
The IPO window is open. The question is: are you ready to walk through it?
Deep Dive: Recent B2B IPOs and What They Tell Us
Let’s examine the most relevant B2B companies from this cohort and extract the key lessons for SaaS founders:
The B2B Standouts
ServiceTitan (12/11/2024)
- IPO Size: $718M at $52-57 range, priced at $71
- Current Performance: +50.1% from IPO price
- Key Learning: Home services software proved that vertical SaaS can command premium valuations even in challenging categories
CoreWeave (03/27/2025)
- IPO Size: $1.5B at $47-55 range, priced at $40
- Current Performance: +250.4% from IPO price
- Key Learning: AI infrastructure plays are getting massive premiums, but pricing discipline matters (note the below-range pricing)
SailPoint (02/12/2025)
- IPO Size: $1.38B at $19-21 range, priced at $23
- Current Performance: -17.1% from IPO price
- Key Learning: Even identity/security plays aren’t immune to execution risk post-IPO
Rubrik (04/24/2024)
- IPO Size: $863M at $28-31 range, priced at $32
- Current Performance: +206% from IPO price
- Key Learning: Data protection/backup SaaS is having a moment, driven by compliance and AI data needs
MNTN (05/21/2025)
- IPO Size: $187M at $14-16 range, priced at $16
- Current Performance: +55.9% from IPO price
- Key Learning: Connected TV advertising platforms are capturing premium valuations as brands shift budgets from traditional TV to programmatic CTV
Hinge Health (05/21/2025)
- IPO Size: $503M at $28-32 range, priced at $32
- Current Performance: +21.5% from IPO price
- Key Learning: Digital health platforms with measurable ROI for employers are finding strong public market reception, especially those addressing musculoskeletal conditions
OneStream (07/23/2024)
- IPO Size: $563M at $17-19 range, priced at $20
- Current Performance: +44.6% from IPO price
- Key Learning: Enterprise financial software with strong integration capabilities can command solid premiums in the CFO-focused market
The 5 Critical Metrics Every B2B Leader Should Track for IPO Readiness
Based on analyzing these successful (and not-so-successful) public companies, here are the metrics that matter most:
1. Revenue Quality Score
- What It Is: Percentage of revenue that’s recurring, predictable, and expanding
- The Benchmark: 85%+ should be recurring with 110%+ net retention
- Why It Matters: Public investors pay premiums for predictability. ServiceTitan’s strong performance likely reflects high-quality recurring revenue from essential workflow software.
2. Scale Efficiency Ratio
- What It Is: Revenue growth rate divided by cash burn rate
- The Benchmark: 2.0+ (growing twice as fast as you’re burning)
- Why It Matters: Shows you can scale without infinite capital. CoreWeave’s massive returns suggest they demonstrated this despite heavy infrastructure requirements.
3. Market Penetration Velocity
- What It Is: Rate of expansion within existing customer base + new logo acquisition
- The Benchmark: 40%+ of revenue growth from existing customers
- Why It Matters: Land and expand models create natural moats. Rubrik’s success reflects strong expansion within existing enterprise accounts.
4. Margin Trajectory Clarity
- What It Is: Clear path to 20%+ operating margins within 2-3 years
- The Benchmark: Gross margins 70%+, improving unit economics each quarter
- Why It Matters: Public markets want to see the path to profitability. SailPoint’s struggles may reflect concerns about margin compression in competitive markets.
5. Category Leadership Indicators
- What It Is: Market share growth, pricing power, competitive win rates
- The Benchmark: Top 3 in category with defendable differentiation
- Why It Matters: Public investors pay for market leaders. Reddit’s platform network effects created clear category leadership.
Key Learnings for B2B SaaS Founders
Learning #1: Vertical SaaS Can Win Big
ServiceTitan’s success proves that deep vertical solutions can command premium valuations. The key is owning the entire workflow, not just a piece of it.
Learning #2: AI Infrastructure Timing Is Everything
CoreWeave’s massive returns show that being early in AI infrastructure pays off, but their below-range pricing suggests even hot categories require realistic valuations.
Learning #3: Security/Compliance Isn’t a Sure Thing
SailPoint’s negative returns remind us that even “essential” categories like identity management can struggle if execution falters or competition intensifies.
Learning #4: Data + AI = Premium Multiples
Rubrik’s 206% returns reflect the market’s appetite for companies sitting at the intersection of data management and AI enablement.
Learning #5: Digital Health B2B Models Are Maturing
Hinge Health’s 21.5% returns show that digital health platforms focused on employer ROI are gaining traction. The key is demonstrating measurable cost savings and health outcomes for enterprise buyers.
Learning #6: Ad Tech Transformation Continues
MNTN’s strong 55.9% performance reflects the ongoing shift from traditional TV to connected TV advertising. B2B platforms that help brands navigate this transition are commanding premium valuations.
Learning #7: CFO-Focused Solutions Have Staying Power
OneStream’s solid 44.6% returns demonstrate that financial planning and analysis software maintains steady demand. Enterprise finance teams are willing to pay for solutions that consolidate multiple systems and improve reporting accuracy.
The Strategic Playbook
If you’re building B2B SaaS and eyeing IPO:
- Focus on one of these five metrics as your North Star based on your business model
- Build AI capabilities into your core product – it’s table stakes for premium valuations
- Demonstrate category leadership through market share gains, not just revenue growth
- Perfect your unit economics story – show the path to 20%+ margins
- Time your market entry carefully – being 12-18 months early pays better than being 6 months late
- Target high-ROI use cases – whether it’s employer health savings (Hinge Health) or ad spend efficiency (MNTN), focus on measurable business impact
The IPO market is rewarding companies that combine strong fundamentals with exposure to secular growth trends. The B2B companies succeeding aren’t just growing fast—they’re growing efficiently while building defendable competitive positions in markets undergoing digital transformation.
