New Carta data tracking 31,744 primary rounds shows dramatic decline in VC deals — but not dollars.
While headlines focus on billion-dollar AI rounds and record fund sizes, the data tells a different story for most founders: there are simply fewer funding rounds happening.
The Numbers
Carta’s analysis of primary venture rounds from Q1 2018 through Q2 2025 shows:
Early Stage Rounds Per Day:
- 2018: 9.1 rounds/day
- 2019: 9.8 rounds/day
- 2020: 10.6 rounds/day
- 2021: 15.7 rounds/day (peak)
- 2022: 13.0 rounds/day
- 2023: 10.3 rounds/day
- 2024: 10.0 rounds/day
- 2025: 7.4 rounds/day
That’s a 53% decline from the 2021 peak, and importantly, 2025 levels are now below pre-pandemic 2019.
Growth Stage: Down 53% (6.4 to 3.0 rounds/day)
Late Stage: Down 33% (2.1 to 1.4 rounds/day)
Top 3 Learnings
1. Round Count ≠ Dollar Volume While mega-rounds grab headlines and boost total dollar figures, the average founder faces significantly fewer funding opportunities. There are simply fewer checks being written across all stages.
2. 2021 Was an Aberration, But We Haven’t Returned to “Normal” Even in The Age of AI. Not Yet At Least. Even comparing to stable 2018-2020 levels, we’re seeing 25-30% fewer rounds. This isn’t just a correction from 2021 excess—it’s a structurally different market.
3. The Funding Funnel Has Narrowed Dramatically With early-stage rounds at 7+ year lows, fewer companies are entering the venture-backed ecosystem. This creates a cascading effect on growth and late-stage activity in future years.
What the Data Also Means
Longer fundraising cycles: Fewer rounds means more competition for each available spot.
Higher bars for funding: VCs can be more selective when writing fewer, larger checks.
Alternative funding becomes critical: SAFEs, bridges and bootstrap strategies matter more when traditional rounds are scarce.
The venture market has shifted from “spray and pray” back to “fewer, bigger bets.” At least to some extent. Understanding this structural change is essential for planning your fundraising strategy.
Good Times Are Back: But For Fewer
The data reveals a winner-take-all dynamic emerging in venture funding. While total VC dollars may be up, they’re concentrated among fewer companies. Market leaders are raising larger rounds at higher valuations, while the number of companies getting funded has dropped to 7+ year lows.
This isn’t a broken market—it’s a selective one. The companies that do raise are taking more capital than ever, creating a bifurcated ecosystem where fewer leaders capture disproportionate funding.
Data notes: Primary rounds only, excludes bridges/extensions/SAFEs. Carta’s dataset has grown significantly since 2018, making the decline even more notable.
