Crunchbase had a great report out on how unicorns aren’t just back in the Age of AI … $5B+ valuation unicorns are the real growth vector:
Crunchbase calls them “Ultra Unicorns” which I haven’t heard before, but if it sticks as a term, I’m in 🙂
What The Data Shows:
#1: The 13% Rule — Ultra-Unicorns Control Half of Everything
Ultra-unicorns make up only 13% of all unicorn companies by count, but they hold more than half of their value: $3.5 trillion of the $6 trillion cumulative valuation. For B2B founders, this screams one thing: winner-take-most markets are getting more extreme. The companies that break through to ultra-unicorn status aren’t just winning — they’re consuming entire market categories.
#2: 2025 Is Shaping Up to Be an Ultra-Unicorn Vintage Year
With 17 companies newly joining the $5B+ club in just the first half of 2025, this tier is expanding faster than previous years and is on track to far surpass the 19 companies that joined in 2024. The standout? Thinking Machines Lab raised a $2 billion seed round at a $10 billion valuation — by far the largest seed round on record. The takeaway: If you’re building in AI or other frontier categories, the ceiling for initial valuations has been completely blown off.
#3: The Maturity Sweet Spot Is 7-14 Years
The peak founding years for current $5B+ unicorns were 2011-2018, meaning most are between 7 and 14 years old. This isn’t overnight success — it’s sustained execution through multiple market cycles. For SaaS CEOs, this reinforces the long game mentality. Ultra-unicorn status requires building through at least one major market correction and proving resilience across economic cycles.
#4: Exit Velocity Is Accelerating Despite Market Conditions
In 2024, nine companies valued at $5B+ exited, and five have already exited in 2025 including Chime, CoreWeave, and Wiz. Even with a challenging exit environment, ultra-unicorns are finding paths to liquidity. This suggests that when you reach truly massive scale, you create your own market dynamics. The lesson: Scale creates optionality — whether through strategic acquisitions, public offerings, or alternative liquidity events.
VC Has Split Into Mega Venture & All The Rest
The ultra-unicorn phenomenon isn’t just about bragging rights. It reveals that private markets are bifurcating into two distinct games: the traditional venture path and the “build a category-defining platform” path. For SaaS founders aiming high, the question isn’t just “How do we get to unicorn status?” but “How do we build something so foundational that we become infrastructure for an entire ecosystem?”
The companies reaching ultra-unicorn status aren’t just growing faster — they’re playing a fundamentally different game where network effects, platform dynamics, and market consolidation create winner-take-most outcomes that were previously unimaginable in private markets.
And finally, while all the “action” in VC is in mega rounds at $5B+ valuations, note overall the number of deals is falling per the latest Carta data:
A tale of two worlds. Fewer rounds, more dollars, going in to winners and perceived winners at $5B+ valuations.
GBGH.
