So SaaS is back.  Top SaaS stocks are on fire the past few months, and the SaaS downturn in B2B2B appears to be behind us.

And as stock prices rip higher, growth VC floods back in.  It’s natural.

But how aggressive will late stage investors be? 

  • In AI, it’s insane.  As is growth, in some cases.  The 300x ARR round is here.  It’s 2021 but all over again, and different 😉
  • But in SaaS overall, the growth playbook hasn’t totally worked out on the last 4 SaaS IPOs.  All of which are epic companies with epic metrics.

Some rough metrics for the last 4 SaaS IPOs — which again are epic ones:

These are rough metrics.  I didn’t include antidilution protections to keep it simple.  What it does illustrate is that the last round investors in the last 4 IPOs basically made — nothing at IPO.  At least at IPO.

Now Rubrik has just ripped since IPO, and Klaviyo has ripped since a post-IPO dip.  But overall, the growth investments weren’t big wins.

Does this really matter?  2021 prices were certainly inflated in many cases from valuations today.  But I do think it will lead to more conservatism for now at least on late-stage growth rounds in SaaS.  At least in some cases.  Databrick’s Series J at $62 Billion valuation may seem an exception.  But even there, it’s “only” at 20x ARR with about the best metrics you could imagine:

Everyone has to make money in venture for things to really work.  Not on every deal.  But overall.

A related post here:

Is SaaS Back? (TL;DR: It Sure Feels Like It)

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