Canva Future IPO Valuation Analysis: What Figma’s 250% First-Day Pop Means for the Design Software Giant
A SaaStr Deep Dive Into the Next Mega IPO in Design Software
The Figma Blueprint and Canva’s Path to Public Markets
Figma’s spectacular market debut this week—jumping 250% from its $33 IPO price to close at $115.50 on its first day—has fundamentally reset expectations for design software valuations. With a final market cap of $56.3 billion, Figma’s performance provides a compelling framework for analyzing Canva’s potential IPO valuation, which could happen as early as 2026.
The question isn’t whether Canva will go public—it’s what valuation multiple the market will assign to a company that’s already generating $3 billion in annual revenue with seven years of consistent profitability and serves over 230 million users globally across 190 countries.
Bottom Line Up Front: Applying Figma’s current revenue multiple to Canva’s superior scale, Canva could realistically target an IPO valuation between $195-210 billion, representing a 65-70x revenue multiple similar to Figma’s post-IPO trading multiple.
The Figma Benchmark: What Just Happened in Public Markets
The Numbers That Matter
Figma priced its IPO at $33 per share, above its raised range of $30-32, achieving a $19.3 billion valuation. But the stock opened at $85 and closed at $115.50, giving the company a market cap of $56.3 billion.
The Critical Revenue Multiple: With Figma’s trailing twelve-month revenue of $821 million, the company is now trading at approximately 68.6x revenue (market cap of $56.3B ÷ $821M revenue). This represents one of the highest revenue multiples for any major software IPO in recent history.
This wasn’t just a successful IPO—it was a statement about the market’s appetite for high-growth design software companies. Here’s why:
- Revenue Growth: 46% year-over-year growth with clear path to $1B ARR
- Market Position: ~90% market share in design tools
- Profitability: Operating income of $9-12 million on $247-250 million in Q2 revenue
- Premium Multiple: 68.6x revenue multiple demonstrates extreme investor confidence
Why Figma’s Success Matters for Canva
The design software category has officially been validated by public markets as a premium-multiple sector. Figma achieved “the largest first-day pop in at least three decades for a US-traded company raising more than $1 billion”, proving institutional investors are willing to pay significant premiums for category-defining design platforms.
Canva’s Valuation Foundation: The Fundamentals
Revenue Scale and Growth Trajectory
Canva’s financial profile is remarkably stronger than Figma’s at IPO:
- Current Revenue: $3 billion in ARR as of March 2025 (vs. Figma’s $821M TTM revenue)
- Growth Acceleration: Estimates suggest Canva hit $3B ARR growing 40%+
- User Base: 230 million monthly active users in March 2025, up from 220M in September 2024
- Market Penetration: 95% of Fortune 500 companies use Canva
- Scale Advantage: Canva generates 3.7x more revenue than Figma
Profitability: The Key Differentiator
Unlike most SaaS companies at IPO, Canva has been profitable since 2017. This sustainable business model provides significant downside protection and justifies premium multiples.
Recent Valuation Trends
Canva’s private market valuations have shown resilience:
- Peak Valuation (2021): $40 billion
- Recent Secondary Sales: $56 billion valuation in June 2025
- Current Range: $37-56 billion based on various secondary transactions
Market Context: 2025 B2B Valuation Environment
Public Market Multiples Have Stabilized
The SaaS Capital Index stands at 7.0 times current run-rate annualized revenue, with expectations for public SaaS valuations to remain in the 5.5x to 8x current ARR band. However, premium companies are commanding significantly higher multiples:
- High-Growth SaaS: Companies with >40% ARR growth may achieve multiples ranging from 7x to 10x ARR for private companies
- Public Market Leaders: Leading public SaaS companies with exceptional growth and profitability can attain multiples exceeding 10x ARR
AI-Driven Premium Valuations
Companies that integrate AI into core workflows are likely to outperform peers, with AI-integrated SaaS companies commanding premium multiples. Canva’s aggressive AI investments position it for this premium.
Competitive Positioning: The Adobe Factor
Market Share Dynamics
The competitive landscape favors Canva:
- Canva: 12.47% market share in graphics software industry
- User Demographics: 230 million monthly active users as of March 2025
- Enterprise Adoption: 85% of Fortune 500 companies use Canva
Strategic Differentiation
Canva has successfully moved upmarket from individual users to corporate markets through team and enterprise offerings, adding brand management tools, approval workflows, and administrative controls specifically targeting organizational needs.
Unlike Adobe’s complexity, Canva has maintained its accessibility while adding enterprise features—a rare combination that justifies premium valuations.
Canva IPO Valuation Scenarios
Applying Figma’s Revenue Multiple: $195-210 Billion Valuation
Revenue Multiple: 65-70x (based on Figma’s current 68.6x trading multiple)
Calculation:
- Canva $3B ARR × 65x multiple = $195 billion
- Canva $3B ARR × 70x multiple = $210 billion
Rationale:
- Direct application of Figma’s proven market reception
- Canva’s superior scale (3.7x Figma’s revenue) with similar growth profile
- Broader market appeal beyond professional designers
- Seven years of profitability vs. Figma’s recent profitability
Conservative Case: $30-36 Billion Valuation
Revenue Multiple: 10-12x
Rationale:
- Aligned with typical high-growth SaaS multiples (7-12x ARR range)
- Reflects market normalization after initial Figma euphoria
- Accounts for potential market saturation and competition concerns
- Similar to current public SaaS company averages
Bear Case: $18-24 Billion Valuation
Revenue Multiple: 6-8x
Rationale:
- Lower end of current SaaS valuation range
- Reflects economic headwinds and market volatility
- Assumes increased competition from Adobe and AI disruption
- Conservative approach given current market conditions
Bull Case (Figma Parity): $195-210 Billion Valuation
Revenue Multiple: 65-70x
Rationale:
- Direct application of Figma’s market-validated multiple
- Premium for superior scale and market position
- AI-driven product innovation momentum
- Global expansion opportunities in undermonetized markets
- Platform expansion beyond design into full productivity suite
Key Valuation Drivers to Watch
1. Revenue Growth Acceleration
The relative importance of growth vs. profitability ended 2024 at the highest ratio in years (2.3x), with median 2025 revenue multiples for companies projected to grow 25%+ improving to 10.7x. If Canva can re-accelerate growth above 20%, it could command significant multiple expansion.
2. AI Integration Success
The market is rewarding companies with proprietary AI capabilities. Canva’s recent AI investments and acquisitions (Leonardo.ai) could drive premium valuations if execution is successful.
3. Enterprise Market Penetration
About 10% of Canva’s revenue came from enterprise plans, though estimates suggest this has grown to roughly 20% as of 2023. Continued enterprise expansion could justify higher multiples.
4. International Expansion
With global reach already established, the focus will be on monetization in international markets and emerging economies.
Risks and Potential Headwinds
Market Saturation Concerns
Market saturation in UI/UX design could dampen SaaS valuations, especially if Adobe launches effective AI-driven counteroffensives.
Economic Sensitivity
Recession fears and inflation could impact Canva’s profitability and IPO valuation, particularly for a consumer-adjacent business model.
Competitive Pressure
Adobe’s response through Creative Cloud Express and AI-powered tools represents an ongoing threat to Canva’s market position.
Timeline and Market Entry Strategy
Expected Timeline
Co-founder Cameron Adams indicated IPO plans are “on the horizon” but there’s “no news” to report, with the company not rushing into it. Industry reports suggest 2025 or 2026 as the likely window.
Market Preparation
Canva hired Kelly Steckelberg—who helped take Zoom public in 2019—as CFO in November 2024, suggesting serious IPO preparation is underway.
Investment Thesis: Why Canva Could Command Premium Valuations
1. Proven Business Model
Seven years of profitability provides credibility that most SaaS IPOs lack. This reduces execution risk and provides downside protection.
2. Market Position
Unlike Figma’s narrow focus on professional designers, Canva has built a platform serving both consumer and enterprise markets—a significantly larger TAM.
3. Financial Scale
At $2.5B in revenue, Canva is already operating at a scale that typically takes public companies years to achieve post-IPO.
4. Global Brand Recognition
Operating in 190 countries with 170 million users provides a defensible market position and multiple expansion opportunities.
Conclusion: The Wide Valuation Range from $18B to $210B
Figma’s extraordinary market reception—achieving a $56.3 billion market cap on $821 million in revenue (68.6x multiple)—demonstrates the market’s willingness to assign extreme premium multiples to category-defining design software companies.
The Three Scenarios:
Bear Case ($18-24B): If Canva receives typical SaaS multiples in a challenging market environment, it would still achieve a respectable 6-8x revenue valuation—similar to many established public SaaS companies.
Conservative Case ($30-36B): A more realistic scenario applying standard high-growth SaaS multiples (10-12x) that reflect Canva’s strong fundamentals — without the extreme premium Figma received. But this seems too conservative as of the time we write this.
Bull Case ($195-210B): If the market applies the same multiple premium to Canva that it awarded Figma, we’re looking at what could be the largest tech IPO in history, with a 65-70x revenue multiple.
The most likely outcome: Given Canva’s superior scale, profitability, and broader market appeal, a valuation between the conservative and bull cases ($30-210B range) seems most probable, with the final multiple depending heavily on market conditions at IPO timing and investor appetite for design software premiums.
The bottom line: Figma has essentially created three potential pathways for Canva’s IPO valuation. Even the conservative case represents a massive outcome, while the bull case would be historic. The key will be timing and market conditions—if Canva can captureA even a fraction of Figma’s multiple premium, it will be one of the most valuable IPOs ever completed.
This analysis demonstrates the power of category leadership in hot markets, where exceptional companies can achieve valuations that span an order of magnitude based on investor sentiment and timing.
This analysis is based on publicly available information and market data as of August 2025. Valuations can change rapidly based on market conditions, company performance, and competitive dynamics.
