Dear SaaStr: What Are the Different Types of “Commits” Each Sales Rep Should Make?
The forecasting stages for a rep typically break down into three key categories: **Commit**, **Most Likely**, and **Best Case**. Bigger companies sometimes use more categories, but it’s tough to have consistency in a start-up pipeline forecast if you use more than these 3 or so.
Here’s how these stages work and what they represent:
1. “Commit”: (90%+ Chance Close)
This is the deal the rep is absolutely confident will close. It’s the most reliable part of the forecast and should have a very high probability of closing—think 90% or more. These are deals where all the boxes are checked: contracts are in final stages, the buyer has confirmed intent, and there are no major risks left. If a rep misses their commit, it’s a red flag. This is the number you should hold them most accountable for.
2. “Most Likely”: (50%-90% Chance Close)
This is the realistic forecast. It includes the commit deals plus others that have a solid chance of closing but might still have some risks or dependencies. These deals are usually in the later stages of the pipeline, but there might be a few hurdles left to clear, like final approvals or budget sign-offs. This number should be your baseline expectation for the quarter.
3. “Best Case”: (10%-20% Chance Will Close)
This is the upside potential—the deals that could close if everything goes perfectly. These are often earlier-stage opportunities or deals where the buyer has expressed strong interest but hasn’t fully committed yet. Best case is where you factor in optimism, but you should never rely on it to hit your targets. It’s more about understanding the total potential upside in the pipeline.
The key to making these stages work is **discipline and intellectual honesty**.
Reps need to be ruthlessly honest about where their deals stand.
If a deal is in commit but doesn’t close, you need to dig into why. Was it truly ready to be committed? Did the rep overestimate their confidence? Similarly, if a deal slips from most likely or best case, you need to understand what went wrong and adjust your forecasting process accordingly.
A great practice is to retroactively compare a rep’s forecasted stages to actual outcomes. Over time, this helps you understand how accurate each rep is at predicting their own pipeline and where they might need coaching. It’s all about building predictability and accountability into the process.
