If you wanted to pick the most dramatic turnaround in B2B software in 2025, MongoDB would be it. Mongo has always been a great company, but growth dramatically slowed in 2024 (fiscal 2025):
The stock was down for most of the year. Analysts were skeptical. Growth was decelerating. The CEO announced his retirement. And then… everything changed.
MongoDB is up 70%+ YTD. From a low around $214 in late August to over $400 today. Two consecutive blowout quarters. A new CEO. And suddenly, everyone believes the AI thesis again.
Here’s what happened — and what it means for B2B software.
The Setup: A Tough First Half
MongoDB entered 2025 in a difficult position.
The stock had been crushed in 2024, falling from its 2021 highs of $585 to the low $200s. Growth was decelerating — revenue growth had slowed from 40%+ in the hypergrowth days to the low 20s. Enterprise software spending was weak across the board.
The narrative was simple: MongoDB was a great company in a tough market.
- Atlas (their cloud database) was growing, but consumption trends were softening
- Enterprise deals were taking longer to close
- The “AI tailwind” everyone talked about wasn’t showing up in the numbers
- Competition from hyperscaler databases (AWS DocumentDB, Azure Cosmos DB) was intensifying
By late August 2025, the stock bottomed around $214. Down for the year. Sentiment was terrible.
And then the turnaround began.
The Catalyst: Q2 FY26 Beat (August 2025)
MongoDB’s fiscal Q2 2025 (reported late August) was the first sign that something had changed.
Revenue grew 24% YoY to $591 million — ahead of expectations. But more importantly, Atlas consumption trends showed improvement for the first time in quarters.
The stock jumped. Analysts started to believe again. But the real fireworks came in November.
The Leadership Transition
On November 3, 2025, MongoDB announced a CEO transition that caught everyone off guard.
Dev Ittycheria, who had led MongoDB for 11 years through its IPO and transformation into a public company, announced he was stepping down. His replacement: Chirantan “CJ” Desai, a technology executive with an incredible track record.
Desai’s resume is remarkable:
- Most recently President of Product and Engineering at Cloudflare (during a period of strong stock performance)
- Previously President and COO at ServiceNow, where he helped scale the company from $1.5B to over $10B in revenue
- Earlier leadership roles at EMC, Symantec, and Oracle
This wasn’t a crisis transition. It was succession planning done right — bringing in a leader with deep AI and enterprise experience at exactly the right moment.
The announcement included a preview: Q3 results would exceed the high end of guidance, driven by Atlas strength.
The stock started climbing.
The Blowout: Q3 FY26 (December 2025)
Then came December 1, 2025. The Q3 FY26 earnings report that changed everything.
The numbers were exceptional:
#1. Atlas Reaccelerated to 30% Growth
Atlas — MongoDB’s cloud database service — is the business. It’s now 75% of total revenue.
The fear all year was that Atlas consumption was slowing. Q3 proved that fear wrong. Atlas growth accelerated from mid-20s to 30% YoY.
This is the metric that matters most, and it inflected positive.
#2. Free Cash Flow Exploded
FCF went from $34.6M to $140.1M — a 306% increase.
MongoDB is no longer just a growth story. It’s becoming a profitable growth story. Non-GAAP operating margin hit 20%, up 1 percentage point YoY.
#3. Guidance Raised Dramatically
Full-year FY26 guidance was raised to $2.43-2.44B (from prior $2.34-2.36B). That implies 21% growth for the year.
Q4 guidance of $665-670M was well above consensus.
The stock jumped 23% on the day. It’s now up 70%+ YTD.
Why MongoDB Won the AI Narrative
Here’s what’s really happening: MongoDB positioned itself as infrastructure for the AI era.
The document database model — which MongoDB pioneered — turns out to be ideal for AI applications:
1. Flexible Schema for Unstructured Data
AI applications deal with messy, unstructured data. MongoDB’s document model handles this natively. Traditional relational databases struggle.
2. Vector Search Built-In
MongoDB Atlas now includes vector search capabilities — essential for RAG (Retrieval Augmented Generation) applications. You don’t need a separate vector database. We use it ourselves at SaaStr for our upcoming SaaStr Connect app.
3. Developer-First Platform
AI development is moving fast. Developers want tools that let them iterate quickly. MongoDB’s developer experience — the reason it got popular in the first place — is a massive advantage.
4. Cloud-Native Architecture
MongoDB Atlas runs on all three major clouds (AWS, Azure, GCP). As enterprises build AI applications, they want databases that work everywhere.
New CEO CJ Desai put it clearly: “MongoDB has the potential to become the generational modern data platform of this evolving era, an opportunity that comes once in a lifetime.”
The Business Model Advantage
Here’s what really sets MongoDB apart from the struggling B2B companies in 2025:
MongoDB has consumption-based pricing.
Unlike HubSpot (seats), Salesforce (seats), or Monday.com (seats), MongoDB charges based on how much you use. More AI workloads = more consumption = more revenue.
This is exactly the business model that works in the AI era:
- AI increases data volume → MongoDB revenue grows
- AI increases query complexity → MongoDB revenue grows
- AI applications scale → MongoDB revenue grows
The companies struggling in 2025 are the ones where AI reduces user counts and therefore revenue. MongoDB is the opposite — AI increases consumption.
What’s Next: The Bull Case and Bear Case
The Bull Case
- Atlas continues accelerating as AI adoption grows
- New CEO CJ Desai brings fresh energy and enterprise relationships
- Free cash flow continues expanding, making the stock more “buyable” for value investors
- MongoDB becomes the default database for AI applications
- $60B+ revenue target by FY30 (from ~$2.4B today) becomes achievable
The Bear Case
- Valuation is stretched: ~12x sales, 116x next year’s earnings
- Competition from hyperscalers intensifies
- AI tailwinds take longer to materialize than expected
- GAAP profitability still elusive (though getting closer)
- New CEO transition always carries execution risk
What MongoDB Teaches Us About 2025
MongoDB’s turnaround is the perfect case study for what’s working in B2B software right now:
1. Infrastructure > Applications
The companies winning in 2025 are infrastructure plays (Palantir, MongoDB, Cloudflare, Snowflake) rather than application plays (HubSpot, Monday.com, Asana).
Infrastructure benefits from AI. Applications get disrupted by it.
2. Consumption > Seats
Business models matter more than ever. Consumption-based pricing aligns with AI growth. Seat-based pricing fights against it.
3. Execution Still Matters
MongoDB didn’t just have the right positioning — they executed. Q3 beat expectations on every metric. Guidance was raised. Cash flow expanded.
Good positioning + good execution = stock goes up.
4. Narrative Can Shift Fast
MongoDB was left for dead in August. By December, it’s one of the best-performing software stocks of the year.
Markets can change their mind quickly when the data supports it.
The Greatest “Turn Around” of 2025. Going All In on AI — With The Right Pricing and Business Model
MongoDB’s 2025 is a masterclass in turnaround execution:
- Right business model (consumption-based, cloud-native)
- Right positioning (AI infrastructure, developer-first)
- Right leadership transition (CJ Desai from Cloudflare/ServiceNow)
- Right execution (beat and raise, accelerating Atlas, expanding margins)
The stock went from $214 in August to $400+ today. That’s what happens when a great company in a great position finally delivers the numbers.
Is it expensive? Yes. At 12x sales and 116x forward earnings, there’s not much room for error.
But MongoDB just proved that it can deliver. And in a market that’s punishing B2B software broadly, MongoDB is thriving.
That’s the power of being in the right place, at the right time, with the right business model.
Note: This analysis is based on publicly available information as of December 2025. This is not investment advice. Stock prices mentioned were accurate at time of writing but may have changed.
