So we’ve all watched the mega VC rounds for OpenAI, Databricks, Anthropic etc as VCs deploy billions into the AI winners at scale.
But just how much of venture capital overall is going to … the top names?
Far more than ever, per Redpoint’s latest data.
- In 2024, 31% of all VC capital went into just 20 deals. A record.
- From 2020-2022, the top 20 deals were just 6%-8% of all VC capital.
Now there’s a lot going on here and part of the rush in 2024 and 2025 is that more capital is coming into VC again.
But it still shows where the energy and momentum are. Massive investments, at massive valuations, into the biggest leaders of AI.
At a scale we haven’t seen before.
So many VCs I’ve known for years are all-in on massive checks to the break-out winners here. It’s the game most, at least by dollars, are playing today.
GBGH is back — with vengence — in venture capital.
So how can Cursor / Anysphere be worth $10 Billion at $100m ARR, you might ask?
Think of forward multiples
If Cursor did say +$50m the past 90 days alone, that might be enough velocity to get them to $500m ARR by mid-2026
So 20x ARR 12 months out
High but not that high.… pic.twitter.com/gXqVrLJ25p
— Jason ✨👾SaaStr 2025 is May 13-15✨ Lemkin (@jasonlk) March 8, 2025
