The latest Q2 2025 Pitchbook-NVCA venture data reveals a highly bifurcated market: AI companies and top-tier startups are raising record amounts at premium valuations, while everyone else faces the toughest funding environment in a decade.
Key numbers that matter: Deal sizes jumped 16-42% across all stages, but fundraising cycles stretched to 15.3 months (up 22%). AI captured 64% of deal value despite being only 36% of deals. Sub-$5M rounds hit a decade low at 48.6% of activity. Most telling: every major IPO in Q2 priced 17-64% below peak private valuations.
Bottom line: If you’re not AI or clearly best-in-class, expect longer, harder fundraising with higher bars for metrics. If you are, this is your moment to raise big and extend runway.
1. 💰 Deal Sizes Are Exploding Across All Stages
- Pre-seed median: $0.9M (up 42.3% YoY)
- Seed median: $3.6M (up 16.1% YoY)
- Series C median: $61.2M (up 40.5% YoY)
- Series D+ median: $100.0M
Takeaway: Raise bigger rounds – the market is rewarding larger checks.
2. 🎯 Small Rounds Are Getting Squeezed Out
- Sub-$5M deals: 48.6% of total (down from 55.4% in 2024)
- This is a decade low for small deal share
Takeaway: Either bootstrap longer or swing for $5M+ rounds.
3. 🤖 AI Dominates Deal Value
- AI companies: 64.1% of H1 2025 deal value
- AI companies: Only 35.6% of deal count
- 5 AI deals topped $1B in Q2 alone
Takeaway: AI companies get 2x the capital per deal vs non-AI.
4. 🔄 Crossover Investors Disappeared
- Crossover participation: Just $11B in Q2 (lowest in 6 quarters)
- Down from $50B+ quarterly peaks in 2021-2022
- Largest crossover round: Neuralink at only $650M
Takeaway: Don’t count on hedge funds and mutual funds for growth rounds.
5. 📈 Valuations Hit Decade Highs (For Survivors)
- Median pre-money valuations at decade highs across all stages except Series D+
- Series A median: $15.5M
- Series B median: $45.5M
- Series C median: $119.0M
Takeaway: Quality companies command premium valuations.
6. 🏢 Corporate VCs Retreated 35% in Activity
- CVC participation: 22.3% of deals (down from 35.7% peak)
- Only 1,112 corporate investors active (vs 3,111 in 2022)
Takeaway: Don’t rely on strategic investors early-stage. If at all.
7. 💸 Venture Debt Hit $30.8B Despite Lower Volume
- 383 deals in H1 2025 (vs 1,045 in 2024)
- Median loan size: $2.8M (early-stage), $4.5M (late-stage)
Takeaway: Debt financing available but more selective.
8. 📊 Down-Round IPOs Are 100% Normal
- Chime IPO: 63.6% below peak valuation
- Hinge Health: 62.9% below peak
- MNTN: 45.0% below peak
- Circle: 16.9% below peak (best performer)
Takeaway: Price for liquidity, not peak valuations.
9. 🌊 Late-Stage Money Is Concentrated
- Venture-growth deals: $83.9B in H1 (on track for $167.8B annually)
- This would be a record, surpassing 2021’s $91.6B peak
Takeaway: If you reach Series D+, massive capital awaits.
10. 🎪 Exit Market Shows Life But Still 67% Below Peak
- Q2 exits: $67.7B (highest since Q4 2021)
- But still well below 2021 peak quarters of $250B+
- IPO count: Still under 15 per quarter vs 50+ in peak times
Takeaway: M&A is up and IPOs are back .. but .. still plan for 2-3 more years of constrained exits.
Top quartile companies are raising at record valuations and sizes, while everyone else faces the toughest funding environment in a decade. The data shows a clear flight to quality.
