So there’s an uncomfortable truth that VCs don’t discuss outloud that often, but everyone has sort of accepted. Everyone resisted in 2022 and into 2023, but by 2024 they began to capitulate.
That a lot of unicorns that hit $1B+ valuations in 2020-2021 … probably aren’t really unicorns anymore.
How many? Over 60% haven’t raised funding since 2021 and likely never achieved the scale to do so, or have seen growth slow:
Per Carta, a𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗝𝗮𝗻 𝟭, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱:
- 374 of the original 616 pool had not raised any subsequent rounds.
- 83 have raised a flat or up round (13.5%).
- 67 have raised a down round (10.9%, but nearly half of those that have raised anything).
- 78 have exited through IPO or M&A (12.7%).
- 14 have shut down (2.3%, may be a little undercount).
This is what it is. In venture, we hope it all keeps going up. But the reality is, these are private companies. We often don’t talk about the ones that stop going up … unless they truly go under. Most of the time, if they don’t, we just stop talking.
Some of these unicorns never made any sense. But some today are at $100m+ ARR, but have seen growth slow to less than 20%. A lot of them, in fact. That’s tough, but you still have scale and often, the burn rate is low or in many cases these centicorns are cash-flow positive. Just slow-growing now. Vs. hypergrowth a few years back.
"What happens to all the unicorns that are overvalued in today’s market? 🦄" @HarryStebbings @epaley @m2jr pic.twitter.com/B52XNJTQco
— Jason ✨👾SaaStr 2025 is May 13-15✨ Lemkin (@jasonlk) September 27, 2023
What if this is you? What if you raised at $1B+ or more in 2021, or even in 2025? And you don’t end up being worth that much?
Look it’s not great but in the end, just keep growing as fast as practical and don’t run out of money. Private Equity won’t buy all of the almost 400 unicorns that didn’t raise another round. But they and others may buy a bunch. IF … if … they aren’t burning anything, still have some growth, and haven’t raised too much.
Get to $100m+ ARR, with at least some growth, 100% NRR, and no burn, and you’ll have something or real value. Maybe not as much as the last round, but it is what it is.
