The year started off exciting. IPOs were back, and way up!
But the data tells a more nuanced story as we close out the year.
After the brutal 2022-2023 freeze, any sign of life in the IPO market felt like a victory.
2025 started off feeling like a real thaw after a few IPOs in 2024. Most IPOs quickly traded way up. We saw some notable names go public. The headlines are more optimistic. VCs are starting to talk about liquidity again.
But here’s what the data actually shows: We’re nowhere near back to normal.
We’re Still Way Off the Pre-2021 Pace. And That’s With 1,000+ Unicorns In the Wings
According to data from Accel Analysis and Qatalyst, software and AI IPO volume tells a slightly more sobering story:
The boom years (2019-2021):
- 2019: 13 IPOs
- 2020: 19 IPOs
- 2021: 46 IPOs (the peak)
That three-year run from 2019-2021 represented an unprecedented window for tech companies going public. We saw 78 software and AI IPOs in just those three years.
The crash (2022-2023):
- 2022: 0 IPOs (yes, zero)
- 2023: 1 IPO
The market didn’t just slow down. It essentially closed. For two years, the IPO exit strategy became almost irrelevant for most software companies.
The recovery (2024-2025):
- 2024: 4 IPOs (Rubrik, OneStream, ServiceTitan)
- 2025: 8 IPOs so far (including Maven, Circle, CW, Netskope, Via, Figma, Invoscript, SailPoint, ServiceTitan)
What This Really Means
Yes, 8 IPOs in 2025 is better than 1. It’s progress. But let’s put this in perspective:
2025 is running at 17% of 2021’s pace. Even if we double the current count by year-end, we’d still be at roughly one-third of what we saw in the peak year.
More importantly, we’re still below the “normal” pre-boom baseline. From 2010-2018, software IPOs averaged around 9-10 per year. We’re just now getting back to that run rate.
Many B2B Leaders Are Opting To Stay Private. At Least For Now.
What about Stripe, Ramp, and other leaders at $1B+ ARR? They’re doing big private rounds and tender offers instead, At least for now.
Why This Matters for Founders
If you’re a founder banking on an IPO exit in the near term, here’s what you need to understand:
1. The IPO backlog is massive. Hundreds of companies that would have gone public in 2022-2023 are still waiting. They’re ahead of you in line, they’re more mature, and they’re getting antsy. How many of the 1,000+ unicorns have the numbers to IPO? Not most. But 100s.
2. The bar is much higher now. The companies going public in 2024-2025 are not marginal cases. They’re category leaders with strong unit economics, clear paths to profitability, and significant scale. If you’re not in that tier, you’re waiting longer. The recent batch of B2B IPOs roughly averaged 50% growth at $500m ARR.
3. The M&A market hasn’t fully compensated. While some hoped M&A would fill the gap, strategic buyers have been cautious too. Private equity has been more active, but at compressed valuations.
4. Secondary markets matter more than ever. With the traditional IPO timeline extended by years, secondary liquidity for employees and early investors has become critical. If you’re not thinking about this, you should be if the option exists. But secondary right now in concentrated in the top, hottest later stage startups.
The Companies That Went Public in 2024-2025
Looking at the names on the chart, there’s a pattern. These aren’t speculative growth stories. They’re established players:
- Rubrik (data security) – went out with significant revenue scale
- ServiceTitan (vertical SaaS for contractors) – a category leader
- OneStream (corporate performance management) – dominant in its niche
- Figma (design) – dominant design tool
Navan: A Great Company, But Also a. Reality Check
But here’s where the “recovery” narrative gets complicated. In late October 2025, Navan—the corporate travel and expense management platform—went public. And it’s a perfect case study in just how hard the IPO market remains.
The numbers tell a sobering story:
Navan generated rolling 12-month revenue of $613 million (up 32%) with over 10,000 customers and gross bookings of $7.6 billion (up 34%). This is a real business with real scale.
But here’s what happened:
- 2022 peak valuation: $9.2 billion in Series G
- IPO pricing (October 2025): $6.2 billion at $25/share
- First day close: Down 20% to $20/share, valuing the company at just $4.7 billion
Let that sink in. A company with $613M in revenue, 32% growth, 10,000+ customers, and strong product-market fit went public at a 10x revenue multiple and immediately dropped to a 7.7x revenue multiple.
In 2021, this company would have commanded 15-25x revenue. Today, the market is saying even 10x is too rich.
Navan’s half-year revenue growth (~30%) paired with a net margin of roughly -30% yields a Rule of 40 score around 0—a neutral indicator. The market in 2025 demands profitability or a clear path to it. Growth alone doesn’t command premium multiples anymore.
Even more telling: Expensify, a competitor, closed at $1.64, down from its $27 IPO price in 2021—a 94% decline that showed exactly what awaited companies in this category.
Navan’s experience reveals that even when the IPO window is “open,” the terms have fundamentally changed. You can go public, but you’re going public into a market that will immediately reprice you down from already-modest valuations.
What Needs to Happen for a Real Recovery
For the IPO market to truly recover to 2019-2021 levels, we need several things:
1. Sustained public market performance. Tech stocks need to maintain or grow their valuations. Recent volatility isn’t helping.
2. Rate stability. The “higher for longer” interest rate environment has made growth stocks less attractive. This needs to stabilize.
3. Proven profitability paths. Investors want to see clear trajectories to sustainable profits, not just growth at any cost.
4. Confidence that we won’t have another 2022. One or two good years isn’t enough. We need consistent performance to rebuild institutional confidence.
The Bottom Line
The IPO market is healing. But it’s healing slowly, and from a much deeper wound than many want to admit.
The Navan IPO in October 2025 drove this point home. Even when you can go public—even when you have $613M in revenue, 32% growth, and 10,000+ customers—you’re going public at 10x revenue multiples (down from 20-25x in 2021) and watching the market immediately mark you down another 20%. That’s not a recovered market. That’s a market that’s barely functional for all but the very best companies.
If you’re planning to go public:
- Add 12-18 months to whatever timeline you had in 2021
- Make sure your unit economics are bulletproof
- Have a clear story about profitability—the Rule of 40 matters again
- Understand that you’re competing for attention with a huge backlog of quality companies
- Accept that 10x revenue is now a “good” multiple, not 20x+
- Prepare for public markets to reprice you down from your IPO valuation
If you’re an investor:
- Secondary liquidity strategies are now table stakes
- Extension rounds and bridge financings will continue
- The strongest companies will get out, but the IPO won’t be the universal exit it once was
- Even “successful” IPOs may trade down significantly on day one
The market came back in 2024-2025. But we’re at 8 IPOs, not 46. We’re at the beginning of recovery, not the middle, and certainly not the end. And even the companies that do make it out are facing a much tougher reception than anyone expected.
Plan accordingly.
