Canva just reported $4 billion in ARR per TechCrunch. And per COO Cliff Obrecht, it’s growing a stunning 35%
$23M in 2018. $4,000M in 2025. 173x in seven years. It’s one of the most extraordinary B2B growth stories ever built — and it barely gets the credit it deserves because it started as a “consumer” design tool that serious enterprise buyers weren’t supposed to care about.
They were wrong. And the numbers prove it.
But here’s the question that actually matters for founders and investors right now: Canva was last valued at $42 billion in a secondary share sale. Is that still right? Too low? Way too high?
We have two perfect public comps to answer that — Figma and Adobe. And the story those two stocks are telling right now is more interesting than anyone expected.
First, The Numbers That Actually Matter
Before we get to valuation, make sure you’re reading the metrics correctly.
$4B ARR growing at 35% year-over-year — per co-founder and COO Cliff Obrecht at Web Summit Qatar. That’s not the “~20%” figure floating around earlier. At $4B ARR, 35% growth is exceptional. That’s a business re-accelerating at scale.
$500M in B2B ARR growing at 100% year-over-year. This is the number. Enterprise (25+ seats) doubling while the overall business grows at 35% means Canva has two engines — one very healthy, one on fire.
265 million monthly active users. More MAUs than most public SaaS companies have total customers. The distribution moat is almost impossible to replicate.
31 million paid users. A ~12% conversion rate from MAU to paid. Most PLG companies would kill for that number.
The profile: a scaled consumer-to-enterprise crossover with accelerating B2B penetration, growing faster than almost anyone realized. Now let’s price it with real comps.
The Two Real Comps: Figma and Adobe
Forget generic SaaS multiples. Canva is a design platform. The only honest comps are the two other design platforms the public market has already priced — one just IPO’d, one’s been public for years. Both are currently getting hammered.
Figma: The Growth Comp — And A Cautionary Tale
Figma IPO’d in July 2025 at $33/share, hit $142.92 on day two, and has since fallen almost 80% back to earth. As of February 18, 2026, Figma trades around $24/share with a market cap of approximately $11-12 billion. That is an extraordinary collapse for a company reporting ~$1B ARR growing at ~40% year-over-year with 131% net dollar retention.
What happened? Slowing growth relative to expectations, rising costs from AI infrastructure investment, and — most relevant for Canva — a market that decided it had massively overpaid for a design platform at peak enthusiasm.
At ~$11-12B market cap on ~$1B ARR, Figma currently trades at roughly 11-12x ARR. At its peak, it was trading at 47x. The market has done the re-rating work for us.
What this means for Canva: Here’s where the 35% growth figure changes everything. Canva at 35% is nearly on par with Figma at 40%. These are not meaningfully different growth rates at this scale — and Canva has 4x the ARR. Apply Figma’s current multiple to Canva’s $4B ARR and you get $44-48 billion. With growth rates this close, there’s almost no basis for a discount. The secondary valuation of $42B looks conservative, not aggressive.
Adobe: The Scale Comp — And An Even More Cautionary Tale
Adobe is what Canva is becoming: the dominant design platform at massive enterprise scale. $23.8 billion in revenue, $19.2B in Digital Media ARR. A business most founders would trade anything for.
And yet: Adobe’s stock is at $260/share today, down 44% over the past year, with a market cap of approximately $107 billion. HSBC just cut their price target from $388 to $302. The story the market is telling about Adobe is that AI is a structural threat to its seat-based model — that generative AI will compress demand for professional creative seats, and that Adobe’s pricing power is weaker than it looked.
At ~$107B on ~$24B in revenue, Adobe trades at roughly 4.5x revenue — a mature, slightly-in-decline multiple for a business growing at ~10% that the market has decided faces existential AI risk.
What this means for Canva: The Adobe comp is the bear case, and it’s genuinely scary. If the public market decides that all design platforms face the same AI disruption risk, Canva doesn’t IPO at 10x ARR — it IPOs at 5-6x. That puts the valuation at $20-24 billion, well below the $42B secondary. That’s not the base case, but it’s a real scenario worth understanding. The difference between Canva and Adobe here is growth: 35% vs. 10% is a completely different business, and the market will price it that way.
So What’s Canva Actually Worth Right Now?
Here’s the honest range, grounded in today’s actual market data and the corrected 35% growth figure:
- Bear case — Adobe-style re-rating (5-6x ARR): $20-24 billion. This requires believing AI disrupts design platforms broadly, 35% growth proves unsustainable, and the B2B story stalls. Possible, but you’d need to ignore a lot of contrary evidence.
- Base case — current Figma multiple (11-12x ARR): $44-48 billion. This is now the most intellectually honest comp — and it lands above the $42B secondary valuation. Figma at ~40% growth trades at 11-12x. Canva at 35% growth with 4x the ARR and a B2B segment growing at 100% deserves essentially the same multiple. At 11x, Canva is worth $44B. The $42B secondary is starting to look like a slight discount to fair value.
- Bull case — growth premium (15-18x ARR): $60-72 billion. If the B2B segment sustains 80-100% growth and hits $1B+ ARR in 2026, Canva’s blended growth rate re-accelerates above 40% — at which point it arguably deserves a premium to Figma, not a discount. Add LLM referral traffic compounding and an IPO premium, and $60B+ becomes defensible.
- My read: $42 billion is fair to slightly cheap today. With 35% overall growth — not 20% — the math shifts materially. Canva at 35% and Figma at 40% are essentially the same growth profile, but Canva has 4x the revenue. The $42B secondary should probably be $44-48B on current comps. The market just hasn’t had a chance to reprice it yet.
Can Canva Truly Benefit from AI-Led Growth?
Here’s the thing that makes this more interesting than a simple multiple exercise: both public comps are getting destroyed by “AI will disrupt design” fears, and Canva is not.
Adobe is down 44% in a year because the market thinks generative AI threatens its creative seat model. Figma is down 80% from peak because growth disappointed. The entire design software category is being repriced by a market that doesn’t know whether AI is a tailwind or a headwind for these businesses.
Canva’s answer — at least so far — looks better than either public comp’s. They’re not losing users to AI; they’re gaining them. Their AI tools have more than 10 million monthly active users. They’re one of the top 10 referred domains from ChatGPT. The B2B segment is growing at 100%, not slowing.
If Canva can IPO in the next 18-24 months and show that AI has been a net positive for their business while Adobe keeps struggling and Figma keeps re-rating, the public market may decide to price them very differently from either comp.
That’s the bull case. And right now, the evidence is pointing that direction.
Is B2B The Real Story?
Everything comes down to one metric between now and IPO: what happens to that $500M in B2B ARR?
If it hits $800M-$1B by end of 2026 at sustained high growth rates, Canva stops being compared to either Adobe or the beaten-down Figma. It becomes its own story — a design platform that cracked enterprise through PLG at a scale no one else has ever achieved, with AI as a tailwind rather than a threat.
At $1B enterprise ARR growing fast, with 265 million users the sales team never had to acquire, and LLM distribution pulling in new top-of-funnel at double-digit percentages — that’s a company the public market may decide deserves its own multiple.
The last $42 billion secondary valuation is probably fair today. Whether it’s a deal or a rich price depends entirely on which direction that $500M enterprise number moves next.
Watch it closely.
Canva’s $4B ARR was reported by co-founder and COO Cliff Obrecht at Web Summit Qatar, February 2026. Figma and Adobe market caps as of February 18, 2026.
