When Figma raised its Series B in 2018, investors who passed on the Seed and Series A still made nearly 100x on their Series B investment. It’s the ultimate FOMO story VCs love to tell themselves.
But Figma is the exception, not the rule.
According to data from Carta analyzing 547 US startups that raised primary Series B capital in 2018, the reality is far less glamorous. Let’s break down what actually happened to these companies over the following seven years.
Almost 40% of Series B Deals Make No Money at All For Their Investors. Is That OK?
38.6% of 2018 Series B companies are worth the same or less than their Series B valuation today.
Add in the companies that achieved only modest 1-2x returns (27.4%), and you’re looking at 66% of Series B deals trading below or barely above a 2x multiple seven years later. For a venture asset class that’s supposed to deliver 3x+ net returns to LPs, that’s not enough.
The Winners Take and Make Everything
Here’s where it gets interesting:
- Only 11.7% of 2018 Series B companies achieved a 10x+ return
- Another 8.6% delivered 5-9.9x
- Just 13.7% hit the 2-4.9x range that might actually contribute meaningfully to fund returns
Do the math: Only about 34% of Series B investments even doubled investors’ money. And only about 20% delivered the 5x+ returns that VCs need to make their fund economics work.
So even at the Series B stage, you really have to be in the best ones.
Power Law Is Real, Even at Series B Stage
For venture firms, this data explains the entire power law dynamic of the industry:
- You need to write bigger checks into fewer, higher-conviction companies
- You need massive position sizes in winners to offset the 66% that won’t work
- You need to reserve aggressively for follow ons, because you can’t predict which 12% will be the 10x+ winners
This is why top firms are raising $1B+ funds. They’re not crazy – they’re just doing the math.
And they have to be good pickers, even at Series B. They have to get into the 11.7% of deals that actually make 10x.
The Bottom Line. You Still Have to Be a Great Picker at Series B.
The probability that a Series B investment even doubles is roughly 1 in 3. The probability it returns 5x+ is 1 in 5. The probability it returns 10x+ is about 1 in 8.
Those are the real odds.
So yes, you could have invested in Figma’s Series B five years after missing the Seed and still made 100x. But you also had a 66% chance of making less than 2x on your money on the average Series B.
The venture game isn’t about making every investment work. It’s about sizing your winners big enough that the 1 in 8 that works pays for the 7 that don’t.
The takeaway: If you’re raising a Series B, perhaps act like you’re in the bottom 66% until you prove you’re in the top 12%. Price conservatively. Build relentlessly. Focus on winning your category, not just growing efficiently.
Because the data is clear: most Series B companies never make their investors money. Don’t be most companies.
Data source: Carta analysis of 547 US startups raising primary Series B in 2018, tracked through 2025
