Basically 100% of the large VC firms you see today, that have raised a fund recently, will be around in 10 years.
The real question is 20 years.
Most LPs (the folks that invest in VCs) make 3+ fund commitments to the largest funds. And funds have a 10+ year life. So really, unless a fund totally screws up … any Big Fund you see ($500m+) should be around at least for the next 8-10 years making active investments (the most recent fund + 1-2 more at least) and at least 16-20 managing its portfolio and at least making a smaller level of new investments.
Beyond that, generational transition comes into play. If that doesn’t happen at all, or well, the LPs will drift away after their 3 fund commitment.