So this week, OneStream announced it’s going private. Just 17 months after its IPO.
Let that sink in.
KKR took OneStream public in July 2024 at a $6 billion valuation. The stock opened 29% above its $20 listing price. Everyone celebrated. The IPO window was “open” again.
Now? Hg Capital is buying it for $6.4 billion. A 31% premium to where the stock was trading. Which sounds great until you realize the stock had fallen 35% from its IPO highs. OneStream shareholders are getting $24 a share — less than where it opened on day one.
And OneStream isn’t some struggling company. They’re at roughly $500M+ ARR, growing in the mid-20s, with customers like Toyota, UPS, and General Dynamics. They’re the definition of a solid enterprise SaaS company.
The IPO worked for KKR. It didn’t work for public market investors.
The Navan Story Is Even More Sobering
Navan finally went public on October 30th, 2025. After years of pushing their timeline — confidential filings in 2022, delays from 2023 to 2024 to late 2025.
Day one? The stock dropped 20%.
Today? It’s trading around $17. That’s 32% below the $25 IPO price.
The math:
- Last private round: $9.2 billion (October 2022)
- Targeted IPO valuation: $12 billion (early 2023 dreams)
- Actual IPO valuation: $6.2 billion
- Current market cap: ~$4 billion
- ARR: ~$800 million
- Current multiple: 4-5x ARR
This is a company doing $800M in ARR, growing almost 30%, with 71% gross margins, 10,000+ customers including Unilever, Adobe, and OpenAI. Their AI assistant Ava handles 54% of customer interactions.
And they’re trading at 4x ARR.
Navan isn’t broken. The market for non-AI B2B software is just brutal.
JAMF: The Cautionary Tale of Growth Deceleration
Let’s add one more data point. JAMF went private in late 2025 for $2.2 billion. Francisco Partners is paying 3.1-3.3x ARR.
Here’s what’s wild: JAMF tripled their ARR from $225M to $710M since IPO. They’re the undisputed leader in Apple device management. They have 75,000+ customers.
And they got acquired for less than half their day-one IPO valuation from July 2020.
What happened? Their growth rate got cut in half. They went from 35-40% growth at IPO to 10-15% today. And they’re still losing money on a GAAP basis.
The market doesn’t care about absolute revenue. It cares about growth rate. A company growing $100M at 40% is worth more than a company growing $300M at 12%.
The “Open” IPO Window Isn’t a Mirage. But It Might Be Close To It If You Aren‘t “Figma or Better”
Everyone keeps saying the IPO window is “open.” VCs are pointing to ServiceTitan, CoreWeave, Figma. Klaviyo. “IPOs are back!”
But let’s be honest about what “open” really means:
1. You can go public. Yes, you can. The SEC will approve your S-1. The Nasdaq will list you.
2. But you’re going to take a haircut. Navan took a 65% haircut from peak private valuation. JAMF traded down 65% from IPO before going private. OneStream’s stock fell 35% before the take-private.
3. The multiples have reset permanently.
The SaaS Capital Index shows median public SaaS multiples at 6-7x ARR. That’s back to 2016-2017 levels. And here’s the kicker: the spread is widening. The top decile commands 15-20x while the bottom quartile trades at 2-4x.
It’s a “rich get richer” market. Simply being a SaaS company is no longer a ticket to premium valuation.
The PE Take-Private Machine Is Running Hot
While founders debate IPO timing, private equity has been writing checks:
- OneStream: Hg Capital, $6.4B (January 2026)
- JAMF: Francisco Partners, $2.2B (October 2025)
- Verint Systems: Thoma Bravo take-private
- ForgeRock: Thoma Bravo acquisition
- Duck Creek: Vista Equity purchase
According to PitchBook, global private-equity investment in enterprise software is up 28% year-to-date in 2025.
Why? Because PE can make these businesses work at 3-5x ARR. They’ll cut costs, improve margins, and hold for 5-7 years. They don’t need 20x multiples to generate returns.
PE is effectively saying: “Your 2022 valuation was fiction. Here’s what you’re actually worth.”
What This Means For Founders
1. Your last private round valuation is probably your ceiling, not your floor.
If you raised at $500M in 2021-2022, assume that’s the best-case outcome. Down rounds are normalized. Flat rounds are the new “win.”
2. You need 25-40% growth at scale to command premium multiples.
Below 20%? You’re getting 3-7x ARR regardless of how big you are. JAMF had $710M ARR and got 3.1x. Size doesn’t save you from growth deceleration.
3. GAAP profitability matters now.
Navan is non-GAAP profitable. They’re guiding to 3% non-GAAP operating margin. But on a GAAP basis? Still losing money. Q3 GAAP operating margin was -41%. Stock-based comp is still heavy.
In 2021, growth was all that mattered. In 2025, investors want growth and GAAP profitability. Non-GAAP doesn’t cut it anymore.
4. The “travel to IPO” takes much longer than you think.
Navan filed confidentially in 2022. It took until October 2025 to actually go public. And they still got crushed. OneStream spent 17 months as a public company before going private again.
5. AI is the only category with truly open checkbooks.
Unless you’re building AI infrastructure, AI models, or AI agents — this is still a grind. Cursor gets valuations that defy gravity. Everyone else is fighting for 5-7x.
The IPO window isn’t closed. It’s just brutally honest.
OneStream going private 17 months after IPO isn’t a failure of the company. It’s a recognition that public markets in 2025-2026 simply don’t reward steady, predictable B2B growth the way private markets once did.
Navan at 4x ARR isn’t a broken business. It’s what happens when you’re a category leader without the “AI” narrative.
JAMF at 3.1x ARR after tripling revenue isn’t an indictment of their strategy. It’s the reality of growth deceleration in a multiple-compressed market.
For founders, the lesson is clear: The bar has permanently moved.
- If you can hit 30%+ growth with GAAP profitability, you might get a decent IPO.
- If you can’t, PE will buy you at 3-5x ARR and make you profitable themselves.
- And if you raised at nosebleed valuations in 2021-2022, start managing expectations now.
The 2022 valuation you got? That was the peak. The market has moved on.
Welcome to 2026. AI is like nothing we’ve ever seen before, but the grind to IPO? It’s still a harder game. But for the companies that play it well? The returns are still there. They’re just going to companies that actually deserve them. Databricks, Stripe, Anthropic should crush it.
Mere $500m ARR “start-ups” growing 30%+? The window is open. But only sort of, kind of.
