Last week marked the busiest IPO stretch since 2021. Six companies raised $4.4 billion in five days. But is this the sustainable comeback founders and VCs have been waiting for, or just another false dawn?
The IPO window isn’t just cracking open—it’s swinging wide. Smart companies with strong fundamentals should move now, while conservative pricing and investor selectivity create the perfect storm for sustainable public market success.
Last Week We Almost Got Back to The IPO Pace of 2021
Last week delivered something we haven’t seen since November 2021: six companies raising over $100 million each in a single week. The $4.4 billion total represented the most concentrated IPO activity in nearly four years, pushing 2025’s total traditional IPO proceeds to $25 billion—the highest since the 2021 peak.
Here’s what made it historic:
- Seven sizable IPOs debuted (including SPACs), the most in nearly four years
- Five of six major deals priced above their marketed ranges
- 25x oversubscription on marquee names like Klarna and Figure
- Back-to-back active weeks expected for the first time since December 2021
But unlike 2021’s frothy valuations and subsequent crashes, this wave is built on more fundamentals, somewhat conservative pricing, and genuine investor selectivity.
The Marquee Players Who Led the Charge
Klarna: The $1.37B Comeback Story
The Swedish fintech giant’s journey from a $46 billion private valuation in 2021 to a $15.1 billion IPO price tells the entire market story in miniature. CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski priced conservatively at $40 (above the $35-37 range) and watched shares pop 15% to $45.82 on debut.
Key Metrics:
- 20x oversubscribed demand
- $2.8 billion annual revenue (17% YoY growth)
- 150 million global users
- First profitable year since 2019
The real winner? Sequoia Capital, which wrote its first check in 2010 for what partner Michael Moritz called “an alternative payments company in Stockholm.” Their $500 million total investment is now worth $2.65 billion.
Figure Technology: The Blockchain Banking Pioneer
Mike Cagney’s latest venture raised $787.5 million at a $6.1 billion valuation, marking one of the largest blockchain-focused IPOs ever. The former SoFi CEO positioned Figure as using fresh capital “like a weapon” to outcompete traditional financial services.
The Innovation: Figure’s vertically integrated blockchain platform powers lending, trading, and investing while enabling mortgage originators and servicers to leverage their technology stack.
Via’s Quiet Software IPO You May Have Missed
While Klarna and Figure grabbed headlines, the most under-the-radar success story of the week might be Via Transportation—an Israeli software company that’s been quietly building the infrastructure that powers public transit across America and beyond.
The stealth giant you’ve probably used without knowing it: Via’s technology doesn’t just run bus routes—it orchestrates the entire public transportation ecosystem. From dynamic ride-sharing for suburban commuters to optimizing school bus routes that save districts millions, Via’s algorithms are the invisible force making transit more efficient.
Why this IPO matters more than you think:
- $493 million raised at $4.2 billion valuation with an 8% first-day pop
- Real-world impact: Platform manages over 500 million rides annually
- Enterprise penetration: 600+ transit agencies and municipalities worldwide
- Israeli tech success: Founder Daniel Ramot building the “Uber for public transit”
The business model that actually works: Unlike many mobility startups that burned cash subsidizing rides, Via generates revenue from:
- Software licensing to transit agencies ($50K-$500K annually per client)
- Per-ride transaction fees (typically $0.50-$2.00 per trip)
- Consulting services for route optimization and fleet management
- Data analytics subscriptions for urban planning insights
The Supporting Cast
- Gemini: The Winklevoss twins’ crypto exchange that “soared” in early trading
- Legence Corp: Blackstone-backed company with modest gains
- Black Rock Coffee Bar: Testing investor appetite for restaurant IPOs amid tech fever
Looking Forward: The Mega-IPO Pipeline Suggests We’re Just Getting Started
The Unicorn Queue Is Getting Restless
Last week’s success may have been just the opening act. The real blockbusters are waiting in the wings, and their combined market value could dwarf everything we’ve seen so far in 2025.
The Trillion-Dollar Pipeline:
Stripe: The $65 Billion Elephant
The payments giant has been the most anticipated IPO since 2021, when its valuation hit nearly $100 billion. After multiple delays and a more realistic $65 billion secondary market valuation in 2024, sources suggest Stripe is finally preparing for a 2026 debut that could raise $5-10 billion—making it potentially the largest tech IPO since Meta.
Why now makes sense:
- Strong cash flow from $1+ trillion in payment volume
- Clear path to capturing more market share from PayPal
- Employee liquidity needs after years of private secondary markets
- Market conditions finally supporting mega-cap debuts
Databricks: The $100 Billion AI Juggernaut
The data and AI company closed a $1 billion funding round in September 2025, valuing it at over $100 billion—making it only the fourth venture-backed company to eclipse this milestone after SpaceX, ByteDance, and OpenAI. With $4 billion in annual recurring revenue and 50% year-over-year growth, Databricks represents the perfect storm of AI infrastructure demand and enterprise adoption.
The compelling scale:
- $4 billion ARR with 15,000+ enterprise customers
- AI products alone hit $1 billion run rate in 2025
- 80% of new databases now created by AI agents vs. humans
- Strategic partnerships with Microsoft, Google Cloud, and Anthropic
Canva: The Design Democratization Phenomenon
The Australian design platform now sits at a $42 billion valuation with $3.3 billion in ARR and over 240 million monthly users. Recent reports suggest an even higher $56 billion valuation in secondary sales, positioning it for a potential 2026 Nasdaq debut that could raise $3-5 billion.
The AI-powered transformation:
- 800 million monthly AI interactions with proprietary models
- 8 years of consistent profitability (rare among unicorns)
- Enterprise adoption accelerating with 66% increase in average contract value
- Global expansion to 190 countries with localized tools
The AI Titans: OpenAI and Anthropic
The generative AI leaders represent the ultimate IPO prizes, though their timelines remain uncertain.
OpenAI: Currently valued at $300 billion following a $40 billion funding round in March 2025, with $12-13 billion projected revenue for 2025. The company must restructure from nonprofit control to for-profit by year-end to unlock SoftBank’s $30 billion commitment and avoid clawback provisions.
Anthropic: Just completed a $13 billion Series F at a staggering $183 billion valuation—nearly tripling from its $61.5 billion March valuation. With annual revenue surging from $1 billion to over $5 billion in eight months, it’s one of the fastest-growing tech companies in history.
The Supporting Mega-Cast
- Discord: The gaming-focused social platform (valued at $15 billion) has been “IPO-ready” for years
- Impossible Foods: Plant-based pioneer at $7 billion valuation seeking public growth capital
- Instacart rivals: Multiple food delivery and logistics companies preparing for public debuts
Near-Term Pipeline Building Momentum
- StubHub: Targeting late September 2025 with updated S-1 filing
- Netskope: Cloud security leader planning fall 2025 debut
- Lendbuzz: Israeli fintech filing for $1.5 billion valuation
- Multiple SPACs: $2+ billion in additional vehicles seeking targets
The Math Is Staggering
If even half of these mega-IPOs materialize in 2025-2026, we’re looking at:
- Potential $30-50 billion from just Databricks, Canva, and one AI giant
- Combined $200+ billion if the full pipeline executes (including OpenAI/Anthropic)
- Market cap creation potentially exceeding 2021’s entire year
- VC liquidity event unprecedented in scope and scale
The AI factor amplifies everything: OpenAI and Anthropic alone represent nearly $500 billion in combined private valuation—more than the entire 2021 IPO market delivered in proceeds.
Why This Time Feels Different
1. The Fundamentals Foundation
Unlike 2021’s “growth at any cost” mentality, this cohort emphasizes profitability and sustainable unit economics. As PwC’s Mike Bellin noted: “Profitability and fundamentals are huge. Some companies were very conservative with their prices because we’re still in an uncertain market.”
2. Conservative Pricing Creates Sustainable Pops
The 5-15% first-day gains across most IPOs signal healthy market dynamics—enough upside to reward early investors without the unsustainable 100%+ pops that marked 2021’s bubble.
3. Investor Selectivity Is Actually Good News
Bank of America’s Jim Cooney reports IPO roadshows are “the busiest they’ve been since mid-2021,” but investors are choosing quality over quantity. This selectivity creates a more sustainable foundation for continued activity.
4. The Pipeline Is Real
Next week’s lineup includes StubHub, Netskope, and others targeting another $2.53 billion combined—potentially marking the first back-to-back weeks of such volume since December 2021.
The Broader Market Context
Post-2021 Reality Check
The IPO market has been in recovery mode since the spectacular 2021 peak of $142.4 billion in proceeds. The journey through 2022-2024 was painful:
- 2022: Sharp downturn as inflation spiked and rates rose
- 2023: Slow recovery with just $30 billion in proceeds
- 2024: Steady building to $29.6 billion
- 2025: Already at $25 billion with four months remaining
The New Normal Metrics
Today’s successful IPOs share common characteristics:
- Mature age: Companies are going public older than ever (average 16 years vs. 12 in 2015)
- Proven profitability: Clear path to sustainable earnings
- Diversified revenue: Multiple monetization channels
- Strong governance: Professional management teams and board structures
What This Means for Different Stakeholders
For Late-Stage Startups:
The window is open, but preparation is everything. Companies should focus on:
- Strong unit economics with clear profitability timelines
- Conservative valuation expectations based on revenue multiples, not growth fantasies
- Professional governance structures that inspire public market confidence
- Diversified business models that reduce single-point-of-failure risks
For VCs:
The long-awaited liquidity moment is arriving. Key insights:
- Portfolio companies with 2021-era private valuations need realistic pricing
- LP distributions will finally start flowing after years of paper gains
- New fund raising becomes easier with actual returns to showcase
- Strategic timing matters—move quality companies now while the window is wide
For Public Market Investors:
This cohort offers something 2021 didn’t—actual fundamentals at reasonable prices:
- Revenue multiples averaging 5-8x vs. 2021’s 15-20x extremes
- Proven business models with demonstrated product-market fit
- Professional management with public company experience
- Conservative expectations that allow for positive surprises
The AI Infrastructure Reckoning: What Happens When the Party Ends?
The $1 Trillion Question Nobody Wants to Ask
Behind every successful IPO this cycle—from Databricks’ $100 billion valuation to Anthropic’s $183 billion raise—lies a massive bet that AI infrastructure spending will continue indefinitely. But what happens when the music stops?
The Infrastructure Gold Rush Is Getting Expensive
The numbers are staggering and unsustainable:
- Nvidia’s dominance: H100 chips selling for $25,000-$40,000 each, with 6-12 month waiting lists
- OpenAI’s burn rate: Projected $28 billion in annual expenses by 2026
- Anthropic’s appetite: $13 billion raised in September alone, following $3.5 billion in March
- Hyperscaler spending: Microsoft, Google, and Amazon each investing $50+ billion annually in AI infrastructure
- Total market: AI infrastructure spending approaching $300 billion globally in 2025
The Dependency Web Is Deeper Than Anyone Admits
Every “hot” IPO this cycle depends on continued AI infrastructure euphoria:
- Databricks ($100B valuation): 80% of new databases now created by AI agents vs. humans
- CoreWeave ($52B market cap): Nvidia GPU cloud provider with 150%+ post-IPO gains
- Figure Technology: Blockchain lending platform powered by AI-driven risk assessment
- Even Klarna: Claims AI customer service saved $40 million annually, driving profitability narrative
The circular dependency is obvious: AI companies raise billions → spend on Nvidia chips and cloud compute → hyperscalers buy more infrastructure → VCs see “validation” → fund more AI companies → repeat.
Looking Forward: What the Data Tells Us
The Pipeline Indicators
- 150 total IPOs year-to-date in 2025
- $45-50 billion expected total proceeds by year-end (Deloitte forecast)
- Strong Q4 pipeline with major names like StubHub, Netskope, and others
- International interest remains high for US listings
Sector Trends to Watch
- Fintech consolidation: BNPL, crypto, and banking convergence
- AI infrastructure: Continued investor appetite for AI-adjacent companies
- Enterprise software: SaaS companies with strong recurring revenue
- Healthcare technology: Digital health platforms with proven outcomes
A Mostly Sustainable Renaissance That’s Really Just Beginning
This isn’t 2021’s irrational exuberance returning. Instead, we’re seeing something more valuable: a mature, selective market that rewards fundamental business strength over hype—and a pipeline of mega-IPOs that could make 2025-2026 the most significant period for tech public offerings since the dot-com era.
The immediate success factors:
- Conservative pricing that allows for sustainable appreciation
- Proven business models with clear monetization
- Professional execution from experienced teams
- Realistic growth expectations grounded in market reality
But the real story is what’s coming: Companies like Stripe, Canva, and Databricks represent a combined potential of $50+ billion in IPO proceeds—dwarfing last week’s $4.4 billion and potentially creating the largest tech liquidity event in history.
For founders who’ve been waiting since 2021 for their moment, this is more than just a window opening—it’s the beginning of a sustained cycle. But success requires embracing the new rules: fundamentals over growth stories, conservative valuations over sky-high multiples, and proven profitability over promises of future scale.
The companies that recognize this shift and position accordingly won’t just participate in the IPO renaissance—they’ll define it.
The window isn’t just open. Based on what’s waiting in the pipeline, we’re witnessing the early stages of the most significant public market cycle in a generation.
