What justification is there for Tesla's multiple?
It’s definitely confusing.
How can Tesla, that makes less than 100k cars a year, and loses money … be worth $26 billion dollars?
The answer is, has to be, that “Wall Street” and public investors see incredible growth coming.
It happened with Apple. Which went from a broken stock, to #1 in market cap, once it become clear they’d changed a huge, semi-new market with the iPhone (2007) and were on a path to dominating it (2009+). Then Apple went on its epic run:
Clearly, folks now believe Tesla is on an Apple-like path. Not there yet, but on one.
It took time:
In fact, as we now know, Tesla almost failed even after its IPO — and came close to selling to Google in early ’13:
Just before its epic run-up in stock.
But as the Model S shipped in volume, as the company proved it could scale … the public markets began to believe it might be something like the next Apple. That it could just explode, and dominant at least a segment of a very large, changing market over the coming years.
If it does … then Tesla could grow another 10x in stock price or more.