Is VentureBeat right that "number of exits" are a good indicator that unicorns are in trouble?

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JASON LEMKIN

No.

At least not in SaaS and B2B.

There are few very acquirers in SaaS that can pay > $1b to buy another company.  Salesforce has a $50b+ market cap, so it can occassionally pay >$1b (e.g., ExactTarget).  SAP and Oracle can afford a $1b+ check.  Workday could only afford it as a huge, core stretch.  And that’s about it.  Add in Microsoft, Cisco, IBM, etc. that can do a few deals in SaaS, and we’re close to done.

So …

Most Unicorns are making the 95%+ assumption they are going to IPO, not get acquired.

And that’s fine.

That’s the bet.

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Published on December 4, 2015
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