I don’t mean to be tongue-in-cheek.
But it’s nuanced.
- A SaaS company that isn’t growing and isn’t winning might sell for 1x ARR. See, e.g., Vertical Response.
- A SaaS company that is doing well in a “hot” category but isn’t a Top 1 or 2 player might sell for 2-5x ARR. A well-known public company recently said they won’t pay more than 2x for “non-winners”. Typically, the acquirers are looking for a discount to their own multiples here to get comfortable with buying a non-winner.
- A SaaS company that is perceived as a potential winner for a tuck-in acquisition, these smaller deals often happen for $50m-$100m. Usually they need at least $1m in ARR to prove themselves … so could be 10-50x, although these deals aren’t truly multiple driven. So the multiple looks pretty high.
- An established SaaS company doing well might sell for 8-12x ARR. Not sure exactly where, but 10x ARR or an equivalent for forward multiples. This is still a premium to public comps today, so the public co. is “paying up” for higher growth. Some of these multiples got pushed up through 1H’15, but not so much right now.
- A potential category killer is often acquired for 2-3x the last round valuation. See, e.g., Yammer for $1.2b or RelateIQ for $400m. The ARR multiples will make you cry, but it’s not really about that. It’s about buying a potential category winner before it’s too late. And paying the price that will clear.
So look beyond the seeming comps. They are usually confusing.
Published on January 29, 2016