Why would I start a business if I only have a 5% chance of succeeding?
Don’t do it.
With both my start-ups (maybe three, if you count SaaStr and SaaStr Fund) … I was 100% sure we’d succeed.
And I was 99% wrong once I got into it.
- The first one, we sold for $50m after 12.5 months. I closed $6m in revenue in the first 180 days. But we almost lost all our customers. I almost had to declare bankruptcy to cover the $750k note I put in. We lost our key outside hire, our COO, who we couldn’t do it without. Our odds went from 100% on the model to 1% in the real world.
- The second, the founding team imploded. Yes, we sold for a lot more this time. But we almost died the first year. And the second. The market evolved in a very different way than we thought. We spent all the venture money. We barely, barely got to $1m in ARR and $2m ARR. (After that, the issues faded).
What I do know, is if I’d had less than 100% conviction — we would have failed for sure.
Of course the odds of success in a start-up are low — by the numbers.
But if you think the odds are less than 100%.
I say pass.
More here: https://www.saastr.com/the-saas-…